Market Trends and Predictions 9th October 2013


Below you will find technical analysis of the top forex pairs, commodities, stocks and indices to watch in today’s trading.


On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair tested the 1.3600 level twice. The pair had left this level on Friday when the S&P said that the U.S. shutdown would not influence the sovereign rating. The U.S. Dollar has turned the upper movement as most traders expected that the lawmakers would agree on the rising of the debt ceiling. However, President Obama repeated again that he is not ready for negotiations with the Republicans until the end of the government shutdown. Today, investors should watch the FOMC minutes at 6.00PM (GMT), which is the proper scheduled time for this event, since it is not affected by the government shutdown. These minutes can provide us with an explanation as to why the Fed did not start the scaling back of monetary stimulus. Currently, most economists agree on the fact that it is unlikely that the Fed will start tapering in October, which is therefore bearish for the U.S. Dollar. After the FOMC minutes at 7.00PM (GMT) President Obama is due to make the announcement at the White House the next Fed chairperson - Janet Yellen. Except from this, today at 10.00AM (GMT) the German Industrial Production data will be released. The trend is now slightly bearish but if the U.S. situation remains unchanged we do not expect any significant drop soon. The support is lying at 1.3535 and resistance at 1.3645.

Trend: Down - Up


The GBP/USD pair is in for a very busy day, today. Yesterday, the pair was oscillating between 1.6050 and 1.6125. Around 9.40AM (GMT) we could see a very rapid drop as information started circulating on the market that the BoE is about to hold long term variable rate repo op today. With the benefit of hindsight, this information was probably just a rumor, rather than a leak from any official source and that’s why the GBP/USD in the end continued its increase. At 8.30AM (GMT) the U.K Manufacturing Production, BoE Credit Condition Survey and Trade Balance will be released. Economists expect some rebound from last month’s results, so we might consequently see the pair going back to the 1.6200 area. At 2.00PM (GMT) the NIESR GDP estimate will be posted and this kind of data is usually connected with high volatility as well. Traders should not forget the FOMC minutes at 6.00PM (GMT). The trend is now slightly bullish but might reverse due to the announcement of the UK results. Support is found at 1.600 and resistance at 1.6125.

Trend: Slightly Up


The USD/JPY slightly increased and moved back above the 97.20 level from 96.60. Yesterday at 11.50 PM (GMT) the Japanese Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were released. In the report it was repeated that exports and public investment continue to increase, while the labor market is recovering moderately. The authors of the report also shared their worries over the U.S. situation and speculation over the tapering. BoJ member Nakaso doesn’t anticipate that the easing of the monetary policy would be implemented any time soon. The USD/JPY pair then continued its upper-movement and now it started at around 97.40. Today at 11.50PM (GMT) the Japanese Core Machinery Orders and Industry Activity data will be announced. And of course, very important for the pair will also be the FOMC meeting minutes at 6.00PM (GMT). The trend is now slightly bullish with support at 96.50 and resistance at 97.50.

Trend: Slightly Up


On Tuesday the price of gold erased part of the gains from Monday and finished the day below $1,320/ounce. The price is very sensitive on any information about the situation in the U.S., as traders know that the price might drop drastically when the tapering of the U.S. monetary stimulus gets underway. That’s why investors will closely watch the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, where they will look for clues as to why the tapering did not start in September as most economists had predicted, and when is the next possible date that the tapering can start. Despite the fact that gold is no more an attractive asset for traders in times of crisis, if the U.S. situation starts to spillover the price of Gold will climb. The trend is slightly bullish but might reverse on the FOMC report. Support is lying at 1,315 and resistance at 1,337.

Trend: Slightly Up



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